Highlighting a March 2026 whitepaper by Concentric Energy Advisors that offers a word of caution about the consumer cost impacts of certain large load policy paths.
Rapid growth in large loads — particularly data centers — is placing unprecedented demands on the U.S. electric system at a time when affordability is already a pressing concern. Among the approaches under consideration at FERC is a proposal to directly assign 100 % of the cost of network upgrades to new large-load customers with the aim of shielding existing customers from rising energy costs. However what this paper surfaces, is that there may be unintended consequences that inadvertently shift substantial costs onto existing consumers over time.
A primary concern focuses on whether new large load customers are exempt from Network Integration Transmission Service (NITS) charges, that fund the maintenance and operation of the broader transmission system. If so, over time, the fixed upfront payments are projected to fall below what large loads would have contributed under standard rates to support the NITS charges — and those costs would be redistributed to other customers, namely the existing consumers.
The potential impact is substantial, across two modeled scenarios:
- In PJM alone, cost shifts to existing customers are estimated at $33–$47 billion over 30 years, based on expected large-load development from 2025–2030.
- Nationally, scaled to a projected 73 GW of large-load additions, the potential cost shift reaches $120–$169 billion.
- For residential customers, this translates to an 8–11% increase in the transmission portion of their electric bill — roughly $23–$33 per year in additional costs (in 2026 dollars).
The report is careful to note that these findings apply specifically to policies that rely solely on direct assignment — and that this outcome holds under both upfront payment structures and cost-of-service recovery structures.
The takeaway: well-intentioned policies can have unintended consequences, and getting network upgrade cost allocation right will be critical to protecting consumers' long-term affordability.
Download a PDF file of the report: The Risks of Cost Shifts in Serving Large Loads Under a Framework with Direct Allocation of Transmission Costs [PDF, 585.11 KB]